Wednesday, 30 November 2016

Climate Change - 2015 - Warmest Year in Modern Record

The year 2015 ranked as Earth’s warmest year since records began in 1880.

This is reported by scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 

The average surface temperature has risen about 1.0 degree Celsius since the late-19th century.

Fig A2


Globally-averaged temperatures in 2015 beat the previous record set in 2014 by 0.13 degrees Celsius

NASA analysis estimates 2015 was the warmest year with 94% certainty.



2015 was the first time the global average temperature was 1 degree Celsius or more above the 1880-1899 average.

Global annual average temperature relative to 1961-1990 based on the three major global temperature datasets (HadCrut4, NASA GisTEMP and NOAA). 


 Source: World Meteorological Oroganisation

9 of the 10 warmest years in the record have occurred in the 21st century.

From earlier years, only 1998, affected by a strong El Nino event, makes fifth place.

Global mean monthly surface temperature anomalies show the record warmth of 2015-2016 in a graphic produced by Columbia University......

Tuesday, 29 November 2016

Climate Change - Coal and carbon dioxide

Coal, oil and natural gas are fossil fuels.

When they are burned, they change the Earth's atmosphere.

How is that possible?      Coal is a good example.


Coal was formed hundreds of millions of years ago.

Geologists say that a three-metre (10-foot) coal seam took between 12,000 and 60,000 years to form.



Ancient trees and other plants lived, died and were fossilised.
All those plants took carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. 
Some larger coal seams are, for example, 10 metres thick.

They took around 40,000 years to form, but have been mined and burned in a little over 100 years.
The fastest rise of CO2 in the air seen in the ice core record (800,000 years) is 20 ppm in 1000 years.

The CO2 level in the atmosphere is now rising at around 20 ppm per decade.

The carbon joins up with oxygen when it burns.


Each carbon atom joins with two oxygen atoms to make a carbon dioxide molecule

As a result, oxygen concentration in the air is slowly reducing.

Data recorded at Cape Grim Station, Tasmania.

No need to panic, however, as the reduction is around 2ppm per year.

The atmosphere contains 210,000 parts per million of oxygen, so the reduction in oxygen has little direct impact.

It does, however, confirm that the extra CO2 is being made by burning of materials containing carbon, which combines with atmospheric oxygen.

Monday, 28 November 2016

Climate Change - Carbon Sinks

Carbon sinks are natural systems that suck up and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The main natural carbon sinks are plants, the ocean and soil. 


Plants grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to use in photosynthesis; some of this carbon is transferred to soil as plants die and decompose. 

The oceans are a major carbon storage system for carbon dioxide. 

Marine life also takes up the gas for photosynthesis, while some carbon dioxide simply dissolves in the seawater.

35 billion tonnes of CO2 are produced each year by human activities.

The figure of 33.4 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide is for 2010.  

The remaining carbon dioxide is building up in the atmosphere.

 Atmospheric CO2 data and trend

Sunday, 27 November 2016

Climate Change - Corals and Coral Bleaching

Healthy coral can be very colourful.



Some coral reefs have started to look rather different.



This is called 'coral bleaching'.

To understand this, we need to start by looking at corals.

Corals are animals that make a framework around them that looks like rock.


Coral animals (polyps) have tiny plants - algae - living in their tissues.

The algae provide food to the corals, which they produce by photosynthesis.

Reef-building corals only live in a limited temperature range.

Like porridge, they should be 'not too hot and not too cold'.



Coral reefs are concentrated in a band around the equator, between 30°N and 30°S latitude.

Algae in corals need light

Corals grow in warm, clear, shallow waters that receive plenty of light.

Most corals grow in the warmest water they can stand (about 85° F or 29° C). 

This means that slight increases in ocean temperature can harm corals.

Saturday, 26 November 2016

Climate Change - Russell Coope & the Discovery of Abrupt Climate Change

Many people think climate change always happens slowly, but that is not the case......rather than hundreds, or thousands, of years, sometimes it can happen in decades.

"Abrupt climate change" was discovered by accident by Russell Coope (1930-2011), over 50 years ago.

More recently he said:

"We are messing with the trigger that causes climate change....the outcome is likely to be ferocious."



In the 1950s, Russell Coope was a young geologist.

He was studying layers of sediment formed during the "Ice Ages", a time geologists call the Quaternary.

He spotted something unusual in a quarry in the English Midlands.  

This is his own description of what he found ...

"I happened, entirely by accident, to visit a Quaternary gravel pit in which were exposed the spectacular bones of mammoth, woolly rhinoceros and bison. 

Looking at their sediment matrix I was amazed to find enormous numbers of equally spectacular, if somewhat smaller, insect remains. 

I was hooked instantly! 

Particularly exciting to me was the fact that these insect fossils showed that Quaternary climates had changed abruptly. 

Thus, at times, fully glacial climates gave place to temperate interglacial conditions within the span of one human lifetime."


A well-developed sequence of ice age deposits at Bridgwalton Quarry near Bridgnorth, Shropshire. (Photo: Dave Evans).

This was the first discovery of evidence that the climate can change really quickly.

His discovery was later confirmed by evidence from ice cores from the Greenland ice sheet.

So how does Russell Coope's method work?

Different beetles prefer different temperatures.

By identifying the beetles in layers of sand or gravel, Coope could tell what climate existed in that place, and how it changed.

Experts still use Russell Coope's method.

This fossilised beetle is well preserved.



Scientists often identify the fossil beetles from fragments.

This particular fossil is of a diving beetle found in the La Brea Tar Pits in California.

A recent research project links some of the abrupt climate change events in the last glacial stage to changes in ocean circulation.
“We know from ice cores in Greenland that large climate oscillations occurred during this time,” lead study author Gene Henry told Gizmodo. “We wanted to see if those climate oscillations had an imprint in circulation patterns.” 

Friday, 25 November 2016

Climate Change - Is the Sun causing Global Warming? Or about to cause Global Cooling?

It is often claimed that the Sun is causing global climate change.

The Sun is the source of the heat on the Earth, but it has not suddenly become more active recently.

The Sun may be going into a phase of lower activity - but that will not reverse global warming.

When the Sun's energy arrives at the Earth, it travels through the air.

Some is reflected back to space, but some hits the Earth and warms it.

The warm Earth gives off infrared radiation with various wavelengths.  


Some of those waves can pass back out of the air to space, but some are absorbed by certain gases in the air.


If there are more of those gases, less heat escapes into space, so the Earth warms.

In the graph below, from the Stanford Solar Center, carbon dioxide data comes from the Law Dome ice core in Antarctica, and from the observatory on Mauna Loa in Hawaii.


There is no doubt why the Earth is warming.

A new study says that even if the Sun's activity did drop off for a while, it wouldn't have much impact on rising global temperatures. 

It could mean a higher chance of some chilly winters in Europe and the US, but the researchers say:

There is now too much carbon dioxide in the air for there to be a repeat of the 'Little Ice Age'.


In fact, it is very likely that human activity has finally broken the cycle of glacial and interglacial stages.

Thursday, 24 November 2016

Climate Change - Floods more likely, and more damaging

Heavy rainstorms caused devastating flooding across a 12-county region of West Virginia in late June 2016.

Events like this are almost certainly made more frequent, and more intense, by global warming. 


A map from the National Weather Service shows the intensity of the rains that brought floods to the region.
Climate scientists from around the USA said that the overwhelming scientific evidence shows that the warming of the planet’s atmosphere is increasing the occurrence of, and the seriousness of, heavy rains.

Warmer air holds more water, leading to stronger and more frequent heavy precipitation events. 

This is confirmed by research done by a team of scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.


They find the worldwide increase to be consistent with rising global temperatures, caused by greenhouse-gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. 

Wednesday, 23 November 2016

Climate Change - How Ice Ages come & go, & why things are different now



Some people wonder if the current climate change has "natural causes".

They talk about the changes during the 'Ice Age', thinking the current events must be natural as well.

Scientists say that is not the case.

The current situation is different.

The things that caused the changes in the Ice Age are not exactly the same this time.

The graph below shows that carbon dioxide in the air has increased and decreased over hundreds of  thousands of years.

The recent increase in carbon dioxide is much bigger and faster than the natural changes.



The low readings match with times called 'glacial stages'.

During glacial stages, ice covered large areas of the Earth.


The most recent glacial stage occurred between 115,000 and 11,500 years ago. 


Glacial stages begin when those cycles cause cooling.

Glacial stages end when those cycles cause warming.

These cycles change how much solar energy reaches the Earth.

This warming changes the amount of carbon dioxide that can dissolve in the oceans.

So in that early phase, the temperature rises first, before the CO2 level rises.

(This is why some people say "CO2 lags behind temperature rise" ... which is only true in this special situation).


Then as the Earth warms, more carbon dioxide leaves the oceans.

The extra carbon dioxide gas in the air then boosts the warming effect.

At present, Milankovitch Cycles are trying to cool the Earth.

So the current warming is not part of natural processes.



Law Dome is a site in Antarctica where scientists have drilled into the ice.

Global temperatures are responding to the recent big increase in carbon dioxide.


The extra carbon dioxide has come mainly from burning fossil fuels.

The rise in carbon dioxide now means the cycle of glacial and interglacial stages may have been broken.

A research paper has looked at that issue:

"...the end of the current interglacial would occur within the next 1500 years, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed 240±5ppmv."

So carbon dioxide would need to drop a long way below the current level for this interglacial to end.

Tuesday, 22 November 2016

Climate Change - Rising sea level linked to warmer seas, and melting ice

Sea level is rising, and there are several reasons connected to global warming.


An international team of researchers has produced this graph of ocean levels, for a period of time going back to around 500 BC. 

Extra water enters the sea when ice melts from Antarctica, Greenland and other glaciers and ice caps.

Recent research suggests that the glaciers of Alaska alone now contribute 75 gigatonnes per year.

Seawater also expands as it gets warmer, just like the liquid in a thermometer expanding as temperatures rise.  This is called 'thermal expansion.'



Investigating sea level rise involves scientists using many different methods, including satellites which map the surface of the sea.

It is also important to look carefully at older records from tidal gauges all over the world.

Global sea level rise from the 20th century to the last two decades has speeded up even more than scientists previously thought, according to a new Harvard study.

NASA have reported a global sea rise of 6 cm in the last 2 decades. 

For an idea of how sea level rise might affect you: SEA LEVEL MAPS

Monday, 21 November 2016

Climate Change - Early steps in Climate Science


1800-1870 

Level of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) in the atmosphere, as later measured in ancient ice, was about 290 ppm (parts per million).



Global temperature for 1850-1870 was about 13.6°C.

1824
Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier calculated that the Earth would be far colder if it lacked an atmosphere. 



1856

Eunice Foote describes filling glass jars with water vapour, carbon dioxide and air, and comparing how much they heated up in the sun.
“The highest effect of the sun’s rays I have found to be in carbonic acid gas,” 
 “The receiver containing the gas became itself much heated – very sensibly more so than the other – and on being removed, it was many times as long in cooling.”

1859
John Tyndall discovered that some gases block infra-red radiation. 



He suggested that changes in the concentration of the gases could bring climate change.





1930s 
Milutin Milankovitch proposed orbital changes as the cause of ice ages. 

1938 
Guy Callendar showed that global warming was underway, reviving interest in the question. 


1950s 
By accident, Russell Coope discovered that some past climate change events happened in just a few decades.


This came from his research into beetle fossils in 'Ice Age' layers.

1958 
Telescope studies showed a greenhouse effect raises temperature of the atmosphere of Venus far above the boiling point of water. 



1960 

Charles David Keeling accurately measured CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere.

He was not expecting to detect an annual rise.

The CO2 level was 315 parts per million (ppm)and global temperature (five-year average) was 13.9°C.

Keeling's measurements have been continued.

Current chart and data for atmospheric CO2

At the end of 2015 the level was over 400 ppm.

Global temperature in 2015 was 14.80°C.

Sunday, 20 November 2016

Climate Change - Heading for 2 degrees rise in global temperatures

The highly respected Berkeley Earth project has reported that 2015 was the warmest year in the modern record, by a significant margin.

This chart shows the annual average global temperatures up to 2015, from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
One thing to note ….. every La Nina ‘year’ since 1998 was warmer than every El Nino ‘year’ before 1995.  

It's useful to look at average global temperatures by comparing decades.
This chart comes from the World Meteorological Organisation.

The high figures in the 1930s and 1940s were produced partly because there were strong El Ninos over a period from about 1939 to 1942.

Since the mid 20th century global temperatures have risen, decade by decade.

New research published June 2015 confirms this trend:

Over a longer term, it's obvious that the current situation is unusual.

A temperature rise of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperature has been agreed as a threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high.

However, there are major objections even to the "two-degree limit".
Many say the number is simply too high.

Archbishop Desmond Tutu has pointed out that a two-degree global average rise might result in Africa’s temperature rising as much as 3.5 degrees C —a potentially disastrous change.

The current rise in temperature has reversed all the natural trends.

Saturday, 19 November 2016

Climate Change - Repeat photography of melting glaciers

Glaciers are melting quickly in many places.



Grinnel Glacier- at the top, 1940, compared with the lower image from 2006. Repeat photography reveals this process.
melting of McCarty Glacier in Alaska


Embedded image permalink

Mount Lyell is in Yosemite National Park, California.

New research shows that glacier retreat is a global phenomenon and is "without precedent".


In 2014Exit Glacier in Alaska melted and retreated 57 metres toward the Harding ice field, which itself has lost 10 per cent of its mass since 1950.


Friday, 18 November 2016

Climate Change - The last 1,000 years of global temperatures

Average global temperature is now higher than it has been for a long time.


Graph by Klaus Bitterman.

Green dots show the 30-year average of the PAGES 2k reconstruction. 

The red curve shows the global mean temperature, based on HadCRUT4 data from 1850 onwards. 

In blue is the original "hockey stick" from paper by Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1999) with its uncertainty range (light blue). 

The green dots are calculated using data from many places around the world, using information from a range of temperature proxies, such as documents, ice, lakes, pollen, tree rings, corals, seabeds and speleothems.
78 researchers from 24 countries, together with many other colleagues, worked for seven years in the "PAGES 2k" Project on this climate reconstruction. 

Their study is based on 511 climate archives from around the world.

PAGES is the Past Global Changes programme launched in 1991.